Suzy and Hills......I'm working late tomorrow and have the grandkids this weekend. My online time will be limited so please keep this up to date for all of us. Thanks!
TROPICAL STORM IGOR ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112010 500 PM AST WED SEP 08 2010
...IGOR CREEPING WESTWARD...SLIGHTLY STRONGER...
SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.9N 23.9W ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM SSW OF PRAIA IN THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/HR PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/HR MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...INCLUDING MAIO...SAO TIAGO... FOGO...AND BRAVA.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IGOR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 23.9 WEST. IGOR IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF IGOR IS EXPECTED TO PASS SOUTH OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SLOW STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND IGOR COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BY THE WEEKEND.
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES...85 KM FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WINDS... TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
RAINFALL...IGOR COULD PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.
NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 PM AST. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.
TROPICAL STORM IGOR DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112010 500 PM AST WED SEP 08 2010
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION CONTINUES TO BE LOCATED TO THE WEST OF THE CENTER...A SYMPTOM OF EASTERLY SHEAR. HIGH-RESOLUTION ASCAT DATA EARLIER INDICATED PEAK WINDS OF 35-40 KT...AND WITH SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS INCREASING...THE WIND SPEED IS RAISED TO 40 KT.
AN UNCERTAIN ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS 275/5. THE MOTION HAS SLOWED SIGNIFICANTLY...POSSIBLY DUE TO THE LOW PRESSURE AREA APPROACHING THE NORTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE SHOWING A DIFFERENT SCENARIO IN THE SHORT-TERM AND HAVE TRENDED TOWARD THE 00/12Z ECMWF SOLUTIONS. AS THE SMALL LOW TO THE NORTHEAST OF IGOR MOVES WESTWARD...THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY...WHICH ALLOWS IGOR TO MOVE TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR EVEN NORTHWEST BRIEFLY. AFTERWARDS...THE RIDGE RESTRENGTHENS... WHICH SHOULD TURN IGOR WESTWARD AGAIN. THE NHC FORECAST IS SHIFTED TO THE NORTH TO ACCOUNT FOR THE INTERACTION OF THE TWO SYSTEMS AND THE NORTHWARD SHIFT IN THE MODELS...BUT STILL LIES ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE ENVELOPE.
THE INTENSITY FORECAST...AT LEAST IN THE SHORT-TERM...SEEMS TRICKY WITH IGOR ONLY ABOUT 210 NM SOUTHWEST OF THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW. THERE CERTAINLY IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SORT OF INTERACTION THAT COULD SLOW THE STRENGTHENING PROCESS. THUS THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL ONLY SHOW SLOW INTENSIFICATION IN THE SHORT-TERM...GENERALLY A LITTLE LOWER THAN THE MODELS. IN THE LONGER-RANGE...THERE IS PLENTY OF WARM WATER AND LIGHT SHEAR FORECAST IN THE PATH OF IGOR...WHICH WOULD PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LARGE AND POWERFUL HURRICANE. THE NHC FORECAST IS INCREASED FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE...CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS...AND STILL MIGHT BE CONSERVATIVE AT THE END. HOWEVER...WITH THE TRACK FORECAST SHIFTING NORTHWARD... I AM HESITANT TO FORECAST A MUCH STRONGER HURRICANE AT THIS TIME.
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 200 PM EDT WED SEP 8 2010
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM IGOR...LOCATED ABOUT 80 MILES SOUTH OF PRAIA IN THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.
THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER IS ISSUING PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION HERMINE...CURRENTLY LOCATED INLAND ABOUT 120 MILES WEST OF DALLAS TEXAS.
THE REMNANTS OF GASTON...LOCATED A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...ARE PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED AS IT MOVES WESTWARD OR WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE AGAIN DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE VICINITY OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS LOCATED ABOUT A HUNDRED MILES EAST OF THE NORTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WESTWARD AND BECOME ABSORBED BY IGOR IN A DAY OR TWO. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON IGOR ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT31 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT5. FORECAST/ADVISORIES ON IGOR ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT21 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT5.
BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM HERMINE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 6A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102010 700 AM CDT TUE SEP 07 2010
...HERMINE CONTINUES MOVING INLAND OVER SOUTH TEXAS...SPREADING VERY HEAVY RAINS AND STRONG WINDS NORTHWARD...
SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...27.7N 98.2W ABOUT 35 MI...60 KM SW OF MATHIS TEXAS ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM W OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/HR PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/HR MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.38 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE NORTHWARD TO PORT OCONNOR TEXAS
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HERMINE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 98.2 WEST. HERMINE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH AND THEN NORTH-NORTHEAST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND HERMINE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER TODAY.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM...MAINLY TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. A WIND GUST OF 56 MPH...91 KM/HR...WAS REPORTED AT KINGSVILLE TEXAS JUST BEFORE 6 AM CDT.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 995 MB...29.38 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN TEXAS NEAR AND ALONG THE PATH OF HERMINE THROUGH THIS MORNING.
STORM SURGE...STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST OF SOUTHERN TEXAS. WATER LEVELS WILL BEGIN TO RECEDE LATER TODAY AS HERMINE MOVES FARTHER INLAND.
RAINFALL...HERMINE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE...FROM SOUTHERN TEXAS NORTHWARD THROUGH CENTRAL AND NORTHERN TEXAS...AND OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA. THESE RAINS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS...NORTHWESTERN ARKANSAS...AND MISSOURI DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE HEAVY RAINFALL COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS.
TORNADOES...ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS THROUGH TODAY.
NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 AM CDT.
TROPICAL STORM HERMINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102010 1000 PM CDT MON SEP 06 2010
THE CENTER OF HERMINE MADE LANDFALL ON THE COAST OF NORTHEAST MEXICO AROUND 0130 UTC. PRIOR TO LANDFALL...SATELLITE DATA SHOWED THE FORMATION OF A CDO-LIKE FEATURE...WITH A LARGE AREA OF CONVECTION ALSO LOCATED NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. THE LAST AIRCRAFT FIX AT 2333 UTC SHOWED A PEAK 850-MB WIND OF 61 KT...WITH SFMR VALUES UP TO 56 KT. DATA FROM THE BROWNSVILLE WSR-88D RADAR EARLIER INDICATED PEAK WINDS OF ABOUT 75 KT AT 4000 FT. THESE DATA SUGGEST THE LANDFALL INTENSITY WAS ABOUT 55 KT. SINCE LANDFALL...THE VELOCITIES FROM THE BROWNSVILLE RADAR HAVE DECREASED...AND THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS LOWERED TO 50 KT. AS HERMINE WEAKENS...THE BIGGEST THREAT WILL SHIFT TO FLASH FLOODING FROM HEAVY RAINS AS THE CYCLONE MOVES INTO TEXAS.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 330/12. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST REASONING FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE. HERMINE SHOULD MOVE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN NORTHWARD AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THEREAFTER...THE REMNANTS OF HERMINE WILL LIKELY TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND EAST OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES IN A COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE CYCLONE RIDES AROUND THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THAT RIDGE. THE NHC FORECAST IS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS.
